The impact of macroeconomic factors on trade balance in Vietnam

Le Hoang Phong, Dang Thi Bach Van
Received: 18/05/2017   Revised: 12/08/2017   Accepted: 20/08/2017   Mã số: C15 . C22 . F13 . F14 . F17 . F32 . F41.
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impacts of macroeconomic factors on trade balance in Vietnam during the period 1986-2014 with data collected from Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2014 (ADB). Based on multivariable model, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we test for cointegration using bound test and measure the long-run impacts of variables. In addition, we use ECM-ARDL model to analyze the short-run impacts. The results show that while short-run and long-run GDP and exchange rate have the positive impacts on trade balance, money supply (M2) has a positive impact in short-run and a negative impact in long-run.
Keywords: trade balance, bound test, ARDL model, ECM model.
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